Here's my take on things chaps...
Fenrir and I grew up with this aircraft practically on our doorstep, and it really was gut-wrenching seeing it all unfold in front of our very eyes.
Can I just add at this point that the pilot and former owner of this Mustang is a chap called Rob Davies, who is considered one of the most experienced '51 drivers in the world.
He had nearly 15 years of safe flying in that very aircraft, frequently flying to and from work in it (he worked in the aerospace industry) and a regular at airshows across Europe.
Now, with that in mind I'm guessing Rob would've needed a pretty big reason to part company with his steed and join the caterpillar club...
It is clear in the videos that the Skyraider's wing impacts the rear underside of the Mustang fuselage, just behind the radiator doghouse and if you look at the attatched cutaway drawing you will notice this is exactly where the control cables run for the tail surfaces.
My bet is that after impact he very soon realises, when his stick isn't doing what it's supposed to, that the aircraft is irrecoverable and performs the following actions to initiate 'Operation self-preservation!'
Firstly, by popping the canopy irregardless, then if you look at some of the close ups it appears there is maybe 15degrees of flap applied, this could be to try and maintain/gain (if possible) some altitute whilst steering a course away from the airfield. Then, without a minute to spare, he climbs out and hits the silk, to our absolute relief.
It was a sickening thing to watch, but glad that the outcome was positive with no loss of life.
The AAIB will of course release the findings in their investigation in due course, but from what I saw, and have since seen, to me it looks as the though unfortunately the number 2 in the flight has lost sight of his leader and the unthinkable has happened.
It is also worth mentioning that Mr Davies is noted to be an authority in correct bail out procedures from a warbird, in particular the P-51.
Big B, i'm gonna miss you!